The election of a new pope has not escaped the betting houses that analyze the popularity and track record of the cardinals to try to predict who will lead the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion faithful.
The conclave is an election process that takes place in the Sistine Chapel of the Vatican, where cardinals under 80 years old are locked in to vote until one of them reaches a two-thirds majority. The election of a new pope comes after Pope Francis passed away on April 21 due to a stroke.
The 2025 Conclave has begun, and the 133 cardinal electors are already voting in the Sistine Chapel to choose the successor of Pope Francis. Before the voting started, the cardinals took a sacred oath on the Gospel, in which they sought divine assistance. The Vatican workers involved in the Conclave have already sworn not to reveal any details of the election at the risk of excommunication.
Within the group of 133 cardinal electors, there are priests seen as 'preferiti' due to their closeness to Pope Francis or their work in the Catholic Church. The betting markets list cardinals like Pietro Parolin, the current 'number 2' of the Vatican State, and Luis Antonio Tagle, known as the 'Asian Francis,' as the main favorites.
Pietro Parolin, 70 years old, is considered the top favorite on several betting platforms due to his experience in Vatican diplomacy and his ability for dialogue. On the other hand, Luis Antonio Tagle, a 67-year-old Filipino, is also a strong contender due to his progressive approach and influence in the Church.
Other cardinals mentioned as possible choices include Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, Peter Turkson from Ghana, and Péter Erdő from Hungary. Betting on the next pope not only depends on the preferences of the bettors but is also influenced by geopolitical and pastoral considerations.
One of the most creative initiatives surrounding papal betting is Fantapapa, a video game that allows players to select a team of cardinals and make predictions about the conclave's development. With over 75,000 participants, this game has turned a solemn event into a fun and competitive experience. The popularity of betting around the conclave has grown notably with the increase of Catholicism in Africa and Asia.
